Přehled o publikaci

Director of the Centre for Middle East Relations (PCMR) at CEVRO University, Filip Sommer, together with Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy & International Affairs (IFI) at the American University of Beirut, and Yeghia Tashjian, IFI’s Regional and International Affairs Cluster Coordinator, published a policy paper titled “Lebanon in the Eye of the Storm: War, Diplomacy, and State Survival.” The memorandum signed between the United States and Iran represents a significant milestone in the current security situation in the Middle East. Although the agreement has helped reduce the immediate risk of military escalation, a number of unresolved issues continue to complicate the prospects for long-term stabilization in the region. This policy paper analyzes the main factors that may influence the future development of U.S.-Iranian relations, including the future of Iran’s nuclear program, the security of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Special attention is also given to the regional consequences of a potential easing of sanctions against Iran and its impact on the balance of power in the Middle East. The analysis identifies several possible scenarios for future developments and assesses their implications for the regional security architecture. It concludes that although a return to large-scale armed conflict currently appears unlikely, any easing of economic restrictions on Tehran could strengthen its ability to exert influence through allied actors across the region. Future stability will thus depend not only on the implementation of the memorandum itself, but also on the ability of individual actors to manage persistent sources of tension in the broader Middle East.