South China Sea dispute
Rúnar Haraldsson
Territorial
claims
The South China Sea and its importance
Around ⅓ of the worlds maritime shipping goes through the area
Carrying a annual worth of around 3.4 (5.3) trillion USD
Vital fishing grounds for an increasing population of South-East
Asian countries
Recent research missions suggest a vast amount of natural
resources beneath the seabed
China relies heavily on the trading routes as 80% of China’s
energy import and 40% of total import goes through the South
China Sea
Regional players
Of those countries that have territorial claims to the South China Sea the most
notable are:
China
Vietnam
Philippines
Malaysia
Brunei
Other regional countries/territories include: Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore
Other Major players
United States
The US historically has shown heavy involvement in the area, and their presence only
increases with further development
Japan
Japan lacks natural resources and therefor trust on international and intercontinental trade
for most of its energy needs
Australia
As a western-centered country the Australian government can not change the fact that their
geographical position is bound to spark some disputes with other countries in the region
Spratly Islands
The Spratly Islands are a cluster of islands in the
South China Sea
The islands are claimed by different countries in
the region
This complicates territorial claims as EEZ is
supposed to extend 200 miles from shore, as
long as it does not class with another countries
EEZ
Alliances in the region
China has territorial claims that overlap with
claims from every other country in the area
China’s increasing naval presence force
smaller players to form alliances of some
sort
Some of which search outside of
Asia for support
Tensions between China and the US
While China builds a stronger naval fleet
tensions seem at an all time high
China has threatened to sink US Navy’s aircraft
carriers and ram US vessels in the contested
areas
China even went so far as to build replicas
of US Navy’s ship just to practice sinking
them
Possibilities of military conflicts
The South China Sea is by many believed to be one of the most likely area for a
future war/ heated dispute
The US armed forces regularly show their power by controversially sailing their
aircraft carriers and other armed vessels in contested waters
Conflicts are cold for now but with an increased amount of heated classes
between the superpowers the tension is rising
Political landscape and different emphasis on peace
Smaller countries in the area seek for some sort of a peace treaty as they are not
capable of matching China's military power
China does not have the need for peace
Singapore does not have territorial claims in the region and therefor trusts in a
stable political climate to ensure its interests
Natural resources in the South China sea
Proven natural resources in the seabed
further complicate the matter as most of
them are claimed by two or more
countries
Chinese companies testing for oil/gas
reserves often cross other countries
territorial claims
With increased Chinese military
presence it is hard to stand in
China’s way
Tension following Russia’s invasion in Ukraine
After the recent invasion in Ukraine it is safe to say that tensions regarding Taiwan
will rise
China has observed sanctions implemented on Russia whilst not seeing a
great military invention by neighboring countries
Historically sanctions and tax wars by the west towards China have not been
successful as western countries are heavily reliant on import and Chinese
manufacturing
Likely development in coming years
It is most likely that further development in the region will consist of more heated
classes between China and its neighboring countries as well as the US
Taiwan remains an unsolved issue
Russia’s invasion in Ukraine might escalade China’s intention to invade
Taiwan
Future development regarding natural resources might as well spark some
conflicts
Sources:
BBC. Why is the South China Sea contentious?. July 12, 2016. Accessed March 30, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349?piano-modal.
China Power Team. How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea? China Power. August 2, 2017. Updated January 25, 2021. Accessed April 2, 2022.
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
Lockie, Alex. China sets the stage for a 'bloody nose' attack on US aircraft carriers, but it would backfire horribly. January 11, 2019. Accessed April 2, 2022.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-threats-to-attack-us-aircraft-carriers-would-backfire-horribly-2019-1
Marshall, Tim. Power of geography: Ten maps that reveal the future of Our World. New York: Scribner, 2016.
Marshall, Tim. Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything about the World. New York: Scribner, 2016.
McGleenon, Brian. South China Sea: Beijing escalating tensions as ASEAN countries fear renewed violations. express.co.uk. October 29, 2019. Accessed April 1, 2022.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1196922/south-china-sea-beijing-spratly-islands-cardio-asean-sea-code-of-conduct
United Nations. PART V - EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part5.htm